P2P清零未了局:谁来为8000亿坏账买单?

从国内第一家P2P亚博app官网拍拍贷2007年6月成立算起,P2P行业从无到有,进而遍地开花,再到“雷声滚滚”,终于清零落幕。这前后只不过短短13年。

曾经,P2P网贷以创新之名,大行其道。它利用互联网技术优势,突破空间局限,将投资者的资金与市场借贷需求匹配。在热钱催熟下,各路玩家蜂拥而至,P2P网贷全新的赛道蔚然成型。

随着P2P网贷机构清零,曾经所有的疯狂和争议也一同退出历史舞台。11月27日,中国银保监会首席律师刘福寿对外表示,防范化解重大风险攻坚战取得实质性进展,“互联网+金融风险大幅压降,全国实际运营的P2P网贷机构由高峰时期的约5000家,我们逐渐压降到今年11月中旬完全归零”。

CONGGUONEIDIYIJIAP2PYABOappGUANWANGPAIPAIDAI2007NIAN6YUECHENGLISUANQI,P2PXINGYECONGWUDAOYOU,JINERBIANDIKAIHUA,ZAIDAO“LEISHENGGUNGUN”,ZHONGYUQINGLINGLUOMU。ZHEIQIANHOUZHIBUGUODUANDUAN13NIAN。

曾经,P2P网贷以创新之名,大行其道。它利用互联网+技术优势,突破空间局限,将投资者的资金与市场借贷需求匹配。在热钱催熟下,各路玩家蜂拥而至,P2P网贷全新的赛道蔚然成型。

“CONGLUOJISHANGERYAN,P2PSHIJIANGLIEZHIZICHANPIPEIJILEBUHESHIDEQUNTI,JIEJUZAOYIZHUDING。”11YUE29RI,SHENZHENYIJIAZIGUANYABOappGUANWANGFUZERENXIANGSHIDAIZHOUBAOJIZHEZHICHU。

LUOMUZHIHOU,YIQIECHENGKONG,MANDILANGJIE。RANER,HOUXUWENTIHAIWEIDEDAOWANMEICHUZHI。8YUE,YINBAOJIANHUIZHUXIGUOSHUQINGCENGGONGKAIBIAOSHI,JIEZHIJINNIAN6YUE,WANGDAIPINGTAI“HAIYOUCHUJIERENDE8000DUOYIYUANMEIYOUHUISHOU”。

“CONGLAOPAIP2PJIGOULIANGXINGQINGTUI,ZAIDAOGUILING,XIAYIBUKENENGYAOJIADADUIBULIANGZICHANDEZHUITAOLIDU,WOXIANGXINRENGYISIFATUJINGWEIZHU。”11YUE30RI,CENGJINGDEP2PCONGYERENSHI、XIANGUANGZHOUYIJIAXIAODAIYABOappGUANWANGDEFUZERENHUANGPINGDUISHIDAIZHOUBAOJIZHEFENXIDAO。

TONGRI,GUANGDONGSHENGXIAOEDAIKUANYABOappGUANWANGXIEHUICHANGWUFUMISHUZHANGXUBEIJIESHOUSHIDAIZHOUBAOJIZHECAIFANGSHIBIAOSHI,P2PSHEZHONGMIANGUANG,ZHONGKOUNANDIAO,SIFAJIEDINGNAN,“‘XIANXINGHOUMIN’DEZERENRENDINGZHOUQIHENZHANG,YOUXIAOZHUITAOYIBANZHISHAOYAOSANDAOWUNIANSHIJIAN”。

11YUE21RI,GUOWUYUANJINRONGWENDINGFAZHANWEIYUANHUIBIAOTAI,JIANGYI“LINGRONGREN”TAIDUYIFAYANSUCHACHUQIZHAFAXING、XUJIAXINXIPILU、EYIZHUANYIZICHAN、NUOYONGFAXINGZIJINDENGGELEIWEIFAWEIGUIXINGWEI,YANLICHUFAGEZHONGTAOFEIZHAIXINGWEI,BAOHUTOUZIRENHEFAQUANYI,WEIHUSHICHANGGONGPINGHEZHIXU。

从巅峰到清零

P2PMOSHICUNZAIDEQIANTISHIJIECHUQUDEQIANSHOUDEHUILAI。DUANDUAN13NIANJIAN,P2PCONGJINRONGCHUANGXIN,DAOBAOLEICHAO,ZHONGYULUXUQINGTUI、GUILING。

2009NIAN,HUJINXINGYEYANJIUZHEYIFEIGANGRUXING。TAXIANGSHIDAIZHOUBAOJIZHEHUIYICHENG,QISHI,P2PXINGYEGUIMOJINYUEWEI1YIYUAN,JIEKUANRENDECHENGBENNIANHUANENGDADAO70%―100%,XIANSHANGTOUZIRENDENIANHUASHOUYIDA30%―40%。

WANGDAIZHIJIADESHUJUXIANSHI,2018NIANZHONGGUOP2PWANGDAIPINGTAIQUANNIANCHENGJIAOLIANGYUE1.79WANYIYUAN。YIFEIRENWEI,JIEKUANRENDECHENGBENZAIZHUBUXIAJIANG,TOUZIZHELILVWEI12%―15%,JIEKUANRENDELILVSHIZAI25%―30%。

YOUYUBUFENPINGTAIFEIFAXISHOUGONGZHONGCUNKUAN,BUFENPINGTAIJIEKUANRENBUHAIQIAN,GUDAOZHIZIJINLIANDUANLIE。

2015NIANHE2016NIAN,P2PPINGTAIPINFANBAOLEI,XINGYEGUIMOJIJUWEISUO,KAISHIZOUXIAPOLU。JIEZHI2019NIAN12YUEDI,P2PZHENGCHANGYUNYINGPINGTAISHULIANGXIAJIANGZHI343JIA,2019NIANQUANNIANP2PWANGDAIXINGYECHENGJIAOLIANGXIAJIANGZHI9649.11YIYUAN。

11YUE6RI,LIUFUSHOUZAIBEIJINGGONGKAIBIAOSHI,ZHONGGUOSHIJIYUNYINGDEP2PWANGDAIJIGOUYIJINGYOUGAOFENGSHIQIYUE5000JIAYAJIANGDAOMUQIANDE3JIA。JIEDAIGUIMOJICANYURENSHULIANXU28GEYUEXIAJIANG。

QINGTUICHAODEBEIHOUSHI“WUXINGZHISHOU”FANGFANJINRONGFENGXIAN。

10YUE23RI,YINBAOJIANHUIFUZHUXILIANGTAOBIAOSHI,FANGFANHUAJIEJINRONGFENGXIANGONGJIANZHANYIJINGQUDEZHONGDACHENGXIAO,YINGZIYINXINGDEFENGXIANCHIXUSHOUZHAI。DUIYUP2PLAISHUO,MEIYOULEISIYINXINGZHUNBEIJIN,TONGYECHAIJIEDEBIANCHE,ZIJINLIANSUISHIYOUDUANLIEFENGXIAN。

“GAOFENGQI,ZHEIGEXINGYETAIMOHUAN。”BUGUO,YIFEIYECENGYIDURENWEIZHIYAOJIANCHIGUIFANFAZHAN,“HUOXUGUOGE20NIAN,XINGYEKENENGHUICHENGSHUGUIFAN。LILVGAODUSHICHANGHUA,MEINIANHUIYOUCHANGTAIXIAOBILIDEQIYETAOTAI,YOUYIDINGDEJINGZHENGCHUQINGNENGLI。”

11月29日,深圳一家P2P平台的原高管陈晋向也认为,2014年,互联网+金融成为封口,而P2P成为互联网金融的代名词。据网贷天眼不完全统计,2014年全年,至少28家P2P亚博app官网获得总额近30亿元的融资。

JU《2015―2016NIANP2PWANGDAILICAIBAOGAO》TONGJI,2015NIANQUANNIAN,WANGDAICHENGJIAOLIANGDA9823.04YIYUAN,XIANGBI2014NIANDE2528YIYUANZUZUZENGZHANGLE288.57%。JIEZHI2015NIANDI,WANGDAILEIJICHENGJIAOLIANGYITUPOWANYIYUANDAGUAN。

RENZEPINGZAI《FANSIP2P CONGBIANDIKAIHUADAOWANQUANGUILING》BAOGAOZHONGBIAOSHI,LIUDONGXINGFANGMIAN,2014NIANQIGUSHICHIXUSHANGZHANG,DALIANGP2PZIJINZHUANXIANGGUSHI,LIUDONGXINGCHOULI;JIANGUANFANGMIAN,ZHENGCELUXULUODI。

2016年,风向逆转

2016NIAN10YUE13RI,GUOWUYUANBANGONGTINGYINFALE《HULIANWANGJINRONGFENGXIANZHUANXIANGZHENGZHIGONGZUOSHISHIFANGANDETONGZHI》(XIACHENG《FANGAN》),JIANGJIZHONGLILIANGDUIP2PWANGLUOJIEDAI、GUQUANZHONGCHOU、HULIANWANGBAOXIAN、DISANFANGZHIFU、TONGGUOHULIANWANGKAIZHANZICHANGUANLIJIKUAJIECONGSHIJINRONGYEWU、HULIANWANGJINRONGLINGYUGUANGGAODENGZHONGDIANLINGYUJINXINGZHENGZHI。

P2PBIANHUAI,SHICONGXINXIZHONGJIEBIANCHENGXINYONGZHONGJIEKAISHIDE。

P2PHEGUIJIZUOXINXIZHONGJIEFUWU,DANQUANXINGYESHIJIDADUOZUODESHIXINYONGZHONGJIESHENGYI。YOUYENEIRENSHIXIANGSHIDAIZHOUBAOJIZHEBIAOSHI,QUANXINGYEHEGUIDEP2PDABUDAO10%。

KAISHICHUXIANBAOLEISHIJIAN、ZHENGCENIZHUAN,YIXILIESHIJIANJIASULEP2PXINGYEFENGXIANDEBAOLUHEZHONGZHENG,TONGSHIDADADAJILECHUJIERENDEXINXIN。

ZAIBEIJINGDAXUESHUZIJINRONGYANJIUZHONGXINFUZHURENSHENYANJIAOSHOUKANLAI,“DADUOSHUTOUZIZHEBUHUISUIBIANBAQIANJIEJIMOSHENGREN,TAMENYINWEIXIANGXINPINGTAICAIJINXINGTOUZI。ZUOWEIXINYONGZHONGJIE,GETIWANGLUOJIEDAIDEYEWUJIUYINGDANGCHIPAIJINGYING”。

RANER,ZAIP2PZHEIYANGDELIANTIAOZHONG,QIANYIFAERDONGQUANSHEN:TOUZIZHE(CHUJIEREN)MEIXINXIN,BUXUTOU;JIEKUANRENKANFENGSHIDUO,BUHAIQIAN;PINGTAIXINYONGBENGTA;ZIJINLIANDUANLIE,LIANTIAOSHANGDESANZHEXUNHUANWANGFU,ZHIZHIXINGYEJIESHU。

CHENJINXIANGSHIDAIZHOUBAOJIZHEFENXI,“ZAIZHEIZHONGXINGSHIXIA,DAOQUNIANQUANXINGYEQINGTUIDEZHENGCEYIJINGHENMINGLANG,ZHISHIGEDI、GEPINGTAIDETUICHUJIEZOUYOUXIANHOU”。

清零后遗症

“GUONEIDADUOSHUP2PWANGDAIPINGTAISHIJIZAIZUOXINYONGSHENGYI,HUIZHAOWANGDAIPINGTAIJIEKUANDEREN,JIBENSHANGKENDINGSHIZAIYINXINGJIEBUDAOQIANDEREN,SHIYINXINGQIAOBUSHANGDEKEQUN。YINCI,FENGKONGYOUWEIZHONGYAO。”YIFEIFENXI。

11YUE29RI,GUANGZHOUYIHULIANWANGJINRONGRENSHIXIANGSHIDAIZHOUBAOJIZHEFENXI,ZAIP2PPINGTAILUXUTUICHUGUOCHENGZHONG,PINGTAIBENYINGCHENGDANZEREN。P2PCHENGDANBULETAIDUOHUAIZHANG。JUYENEIRENSHIFENXI,YINXINGYEDEHUAIZHANGLVBUNENGCHAOGUO2%,P2PDEZHENGCHANGHUAIZHANGLVZAI3%―5%。

JIEKUANFANGTONGCHANGXUYAOXUDAIWEICHI,JUEDADUOSHUZHIYOUNENGLIYIZHIHAIXI,HENSHAONENGZUODAODAOQIBENXIQUANBUJIEQING。

ZAOGAODESHI,YIDANKANDAOPINGTAILIANGXINGTUICHUHUOBAOLEI,DAIKUANRENBIANSANGSHIHAIQIANYIYUAN,CHANGCHANGCHUXIAN“YOUQIANBUHAI”DEQINGKUANG。

“2018NIANDEXIABANNIANXINGYEGANGGANGHUNLUANDESHIHOU,DADUOSHUPINGTAIHAINENGZUODAOHUIKUANLV70%ZUOYOU。HOULAIDAJIAKANDAOXINWEN,ZHIDAOZHEIGEXINGYETEBIELUAN,PINGTAIZAIDAOBI,JIUBUYUANYIHAILE。”YIFEISHUO,XIANZAIDEPUBIANHUIKUANLVKENENGLIAN30%DOUMEIYOU。

“HULIANWANGJINRONGDETEDIANJIUSHIYOUQIANWANGELAOBAIXINGGOUCHENG,JIXIAOEFENSAN。”YIFEIDUISHIDAIZHOUBAOJIZHESHUO。

XIAOEFENSANTISHENGP2PPINGTAIDECUISHOUCHENGBEN。YENEIRENSHITOULU,“WEIWAICUISHOU”CHENGBENGAOQI,JIHUZHAN20%―50%,JIZHUITAO100WANYUANZHISHAOJICUISHOUYABOappGUANWANG20WAN―50WANYUAN。“P2PYEWULITONGSHIXIANGJIBAIRENJIQIANRENSHENZHIJIWANRENZHUISUO。”CENGRENMOUP2PPINGTAIFENGKONGJINGLISHENHOUDUISHIDAIZHOUBAOJIZHEBIAOSHI。

“QIDAIYOUGUANJIANGUANBUMENZUOHAODAJITAOFEIZHAIDEPEITAOGONGZUO,KAIFANGZHENGXINJIERUHESUSONGSHOULI,TONGGUOJIANGWANGLUOJIEDAISHIXINRENSHANGZHENGXIN、NARUSHIXINBEIZHIXINGRENMINGDAN,TIGAOZICHANHUISHOUBILI,JIANSHAOCHUJIERENSUNSHI。”CHENJINDUISHIDAIZHOUBAOJIZHEBIAOSHI。

P2PQINGLINGLE,DANLIUXIADEJIAOXUNZHIDERENZHENXIQU。JINRONGCHUANGXINBUNENGDAITIJIANGUANHEGUIFANYICHENGGEJIEGONGSHI。

YOUBUFENSHICHANGRENSHIRENWEI,JINNIANLAIRIJIANXINGSHENGDEXIANJINDAIYUZHILEISI,QIELIANGZHEDOUYIDUBEIRENWEISHIJINRONGCHUANGXIN,“FENGXIANKAISHIXIANLU”。

“JIANGUANCENGYIKANDAOXIANJINDAIDEFENGXIAN,XIWANGCHUTAIDEXILIEJIANGUANCUOSHINENGZHENZHENGLUODI,GUIFANXINGYEFAZHAN,BUZOUP2PXINGYEDELAOLU。”YIMINGZISHENCONGYERENSHIXIANGSHIDAIZHOUBAOJIZHEBIAOSHI。

追讨旧债路漫漫

CHENJINRENWEI,JIBIANDUANQINEIZHENGCHANGJIEKUANRENCHUYUHUOLIZHUANGTAI,DANZHANGQIKAN,ZAIPINGTAIQINGTUIWANHOU,MIANLINRUHECHUZHIJIEJIN8000YIYUANDECUNLIANGBULIANGZICHANWENTI。

TONGGUOSIFACHUZHISHIPINGTAICUIHUIBULIANGDEZUIHOUSHOUDUAN,DANMIANLINLISHIZHANG、ZHIXINGNANDENGZHONGZHONGWENTIDEKUNRAO。

BEIJINGJINGSHILVSHISHIWUSUOSUNJIANZHANGLVSHIXIANGSHIDAIZHOUBAOJIZHEFENXI,YIBANERYAN,JIEJUEMINSHIJIUFENCONGLIANDAOJIEANXUYAO6GEYUE,ZUIDUANYEXUYAO3GEYUE,XIANSHIZHONGHAIHUIYANZHANG。

CHENJINSUOZAIDEP2PPINGTAIHAIZAIQINGTUIDUIFUZHONG,“XIANZAIHENDUOFAYUANBUSHOULISHEJIP2PDEJIEDAIJIUFENSUSONG,PINGTAINAJIEKUANRENMEIBANFA。ZHINENGQIDAIWEILAIFAYUANSHOULISUSONGZHIHOU,BULIANGZICHANDEHUIKUANBILIKEYITISHENGYIDIAN。”

SUNJIANZHANGLVSHIXIANGSHIDAIZHOUBAOJIZHEFENXI,FAYUANSHOULISUSONGSHI,SHOUXIANKAOLVSHIFOUSHUYUFANZUIXINGWEI(FEIFAXISHOUGONGZHONGCUNKUAN),RUGUORENDINGSHIFANZUIXINGWEI,ZEFAYUANBUHUISHOULICILEIANJIAN。

JULEJIE,YIDANP2PBAOLEI,PINGTAIZHUTIBEILIAN,PINGTAITANHUAN,ZHIHOUZEJIAOYOUGONGANXITONGCHULIHUAIZHANG。

SHANGSHUGUANGZHOUHUJINRENSHIBIAOSHI,GONGANJIGUANZAIZHUIJIAOGUOCHENGZHONGZHAODAODEJIEKUANRENWULICHANGHAIYEMEIBANFA,HUOZHEZHIZHUITAOQIANKUANEDUJIAODADEJIEKUANREN。

SUNJIANZHANGLVSHIFENXI,TONGGUOSIFATUJINGZHUITAOBULIANGZICHANDESHIJINANDIANSHIP2PJIEKUANRENFANZA,YOUXINYONGDAI、CHEDAIHEFANGDAI。JIEKUANRENRUOYOUSHIWUDIYA,LIRUCHEDAIFANGDAI,FAYUANKEYILIJIZHIXING。DANXINYONGDAIJIEKUANRENQUNDUO,FENSAN,EDUXIAO,FAYUANZHIXINGQILAIJIAONAN。BINGQIE,DANGJIEKUANRENHETONGDAOQICAIKEZHUZHANGMINSHIQUANLI。LIRUJIEKUANRENJIE100WANYUAN,YINIANDAOQIHOU,PINGTAICAINENGDAOFAYUANQISUZHUICHANG。CISHIPINGTAIZAOYI“BAOLEI”,RENQULOUKONG。

“JIEJUEZHEIYIWENTI,BUNENGDANPINGMOUYISIFAJIGUANHUOCHUZIREN,ERYINGDANGSHIYIGEXITONGGONGCHENG,RUGUOGONGANJIGUANNENGCHAMINGJIEKUANRENDEXIANGGUANXINXIZAIYOUJIANCHAYUANDAIBIAOP2PHUOCHUZIRENJINXINGMINSHISUSONGXIAOGUOKENENGHUIGENGHAO。”

JIEZHAIHAIQIANBENSHITIANJINGDIYI,SHENYANJIANYISHEHUIZHIDUJIANSHEYINGXINGCHENGZHENSHE,WANSHANXINYONGWENHUA,“LAOLAI”GAIJINZHENGXINXITONG,JIECIJIHUIDALIZUOHAOGERENZHENGXINXITONG。

“YIDANZHENGSHILIERUWANGLUOJIEDAISHIXINRENMINGDAN,P2PWANGDAILINGYUSHIXINRENKENENGMIANLINDECHENGFABAOKUO:GENGGAODEDAIKUANLILVHECAICHANBAOXIANFEILV;HUODEDAIKUAN、BAOXIANDENGFUWUQUANLISHOUXIAN;YIJIDUOBUMENDELIANHECHENGJIECUOSHI。SUIZHEZHEILEICHENGJIEDETUIXING,SHOUXINDEZHONGYAOXINGJIANGZHUJIANSHENRURENXIN。”SHENYANBIAOSHI。

JINNIAN8YUE20RI,ZUIGAORENMINFAYUANXIUDINGMINJIANJIEDAILILVSIFABAOHUSHANGXIANWEI4BEILPR,JI15.4%,JIAOCIQIAN24%HE36%DELILVJIZHUNDAFUXIADIAO。CHENJINFENXI,ANZHAOXINGUI,BUSHAOJIEKUANRENHUIYIGUOWANGYEWULILVCHAOGUOXINGUISHANGXIANWEIYOU,BUHAIQIAN。

YIFEISHUO,DADUOSHUP2PPINGTAICONGYEZHEYINFACUIZHOUQIGUOZHANGQIEBUKEKONG,GENGQINGXIANGYUPINGTAIZIXINGSHEFACUISHOU,ERBUYOUXIANKAOLVZOUSIFACHENGXUYILAISIFACUISHOU。

LINGYIFANGMIAN,PINGTAIRURUOZHUDONGCUISHOU,JIYIBEIRENDINGWEIBAOLICUISHOU。

SHENZHENYIYENEIRENSHIDUISHIDAIZHOUBAOJIZHEBIAOSHI,JIBIANSHIP2PPINGTAIQUZHUITAO,DANZHEIBIQIANBINGBUSHUYUPINGTAIERSHISHUYUTOUZIREN。P2PPINGTAIJISHIZHUIHUIYENANYIMIBUYEYIDUANLIEDEZIJINLIANTIAO。

SHANGSHURENSHIBIAOSHI,“BAOLEIYIWEIXIANSHI,P2PZHUITAOBULIANGZICHANXUYAODINGCENGSHEJI。”

“PINGTAIRUGUOGANJUEZISHENZHUITAONAN,JIANGBULIANGZICHANDAZHEMAIJIDISANFANGBULIANGZICHANCHUZHIYABOappGUANWANGYESHIYIGETUOSHENFANGFA。”QIANSHUGUANGZHOUMOUXIAODAIYABOappGUANWANGFUZERENXIANGSHIDAIZHOUBAOJIZHEFENXIDAO。

未来,投资者会往何处去。

CAIJINGGUANCHARENSHIGUOSHILIANGRENWEI,CENGJINGYOUZHESHANGWANYIYUANGUIMODEXINGYE,SUIZHEPINGTAILUXUKAIZHANLIANGXINGTUICHUDECELVE,WEILAITOUZIZHEYOUWANGLUXUNAHUIBUFENBENJIN。TABIAOSHI,DUIBUSHAOTOUZIZHELAISHUO,JINGGUOLEZHEIYICIDETOUZIJINGLIZHIHOU,JIANGHUIZHUJIANGAIBIANYUANYOUDEFENGXIANPIANHAOYIJIZICHANPEIZHICELVE,“YAOMEZHUANXIANGFENGXIANJIAODIDEZHAIQUANJIJIN,YAOMEZHUANXIANGFENGXIANGENGDIDEDAECUNDANHUOHUOBIJIJIN”。

(WENZHONGHUANGPING、CHENJIN、SHENHOUWEIHUAMING)


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